Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
Overview
This recipe reproduces the analysis of Schlund et al., Earth Sys. Dyn. (2020). In this paper, emergent constraints on the equilibrium climate sensitivity are evaluated on CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Since none of the considered emergent constraints have been developed on the CMIP6 ensemble, this allows an out-of-sample testing of the emergent constraints. Most emergent constraints show a reduced skill in CMIP6 when compared to CMIP5.
Available recipes and diagnostics
Recipes are stored in recipes/
recipe_schlund20esd.yml
Diagnostics are stored in diag_scripts/
More details on the emergent constraint module are given in the API documentation which is available here.
Variables
cl (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, level, time)
clt (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
hur (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, level, time)
hus (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, level, time)
pr (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
rsdt (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
rsut (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
rsutcs (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
rtnt or rtmt (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
ta (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, level, time)
tas (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
tasa (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
tos (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
ts (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, time)
va (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, level, time)
wap (atmos, monthly, longitude, latitude, level, time)
Observations and reformat scripts
AIRS (hur, hus)
CERES-EBAF (rsut, rsutcs, rsdt)
ERA-Interim (hur, ta, va, wap)
GPCP-SG (pr)
HadCRUT4 (tasa)
HadISST (ts)
MLS-AURA (hur)
References
Schlund, M., Lauer, A., Gentine, P., Sherwood, S. C., and Eyring, V.: Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1233–1258, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020, 2020.